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Prediction for CME (2024-06-28T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-28T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31741/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and just to the SE in STEREO COR2A. The source for this CME is not entirely certain, but appears to originate from the cluster of ARs 3723, 3727, 3728, centered roughly around S20E25 (as such, this is used as the CME source coordinates). Some small C-class flaring is observed here as early as 2024-06-27T19:45Z, more noticeable closer to 2024-06-27T21:24Z possibly due to post-eruptive loops observed across SDO AIA 94/131/171/193. However, more confidence in this area is given via a good triangulation of the CME front between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A in swpc_cat when measuring. No clear arrival signature in solar wind found for this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-01T21:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31743/1
Model Inputs:
2024-06-28T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=381.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-06-28T09:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-01T21:37Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =25.7 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.8
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240628_090700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 76.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-06-28T17:36Z

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